Senator Rudy?

Written by Brian Scott MednickcloseAuthor: Brian Scott Mednick Name: Brian Scott Mednick
Email: brianscottnyc@gmail.com
Site: http://www.brianscottmednick.com
About: See Authors Posts (10) on December 9, 2009

With the recent news that Rudy Giuliani will not run for Governor of New York, it seems clear what the former Mayor has his eyes on. Giuliani loves serving in public office and, in the eight years since he was last an elected official, he has always been honest about how he would like to return to public life.

After a disastrous showing in the Republican presidential primary, Giuliani is savvy enough to know he needs to run for an office he can win; the office of the junior Senator from New York.

Kirsten Gillibrand, who Gov. David Paterson appointed after Hillary Clinton left the senate to become Secretary of State, has been in office almost a year and still remains largely unknown to most New Yorkers. A supposed Blue Dog Democrat, she has been wishy-washy on several key issues and has not done a single thing of note in the Senate. Worse, she was one of seven senators to vote against defunding ACORN, something even some of the most liberal of Democrats find revolting. Her senate seat is one of the most vulnerable of any in 2010.

Early on, Rep. Peter King said he would run for the seat, but then changed his mind. There have been rumblings that former Gov. George Pataki may run, but that is highly unlikely. This leaves Rudy, who will easily win the Republican nomination and clobber Gillibrand in a general election. Giuliani’s background and reputation will make him an instant superstar in the senate, something that will create a lot of grief for his fellow senator, Chuck Schumer, whose entire senate career has been based on getting his face in front of the camera.

While I think deep down Giuliani really would like to be Governor, he knows he would likely lose in a general election against Andrew Cuomo, who seems poised to challenge Paterson for the nomination. Cuomo has been the most effective Attorney General New York has ever had. He is principled, smart, and a hard worker, all traits clearly inherited from his father, Mario Cuomo, who is one of the most intelligent and decent men ever to hold elective office in this country. The younger Cuomo will likely announce his candidacy in the next few months. He will be one of the heroes of the Democratic party as he will cruise to victory in 2010, despite guaranteed momentum for Republicans.

So with Cuomo the presumptive nominee for Governor, who will the Republicans nominate to run against him? Former Rep. Rick Lazio has formally announced his candidacy. Lazio is best remembered for being clobbered by Hillary Clinton in the 2000 senate race and for appearing ungentlemanly when he “invaded her space” in a debate by asking her to sign something. He is an exceptionally bright guy who would make a good Governor but unfortunately, Lazio has little chance of presenting a serious challenge to Cuomo.

Lazio has been working in the private sector and wants to get back into politics. But running for Governor and losing big will tarnish his reputation and ruin any future chances of elective office. With Cuomo likely running for Governor, Lazio should instead focus on running for Attorney General. That is an office he would have a legitimate shot at. I have met Lazio twice and he is an utterly charming, handsome, good guy. That is why I will hate to see him spending time, energy, and money on a campaign that won’t be successful. Of course, given the unpredictable nature of politics, if Lazio were to pull off an upset a la Chris Christie, his gamble would pay off big time. We’ll need to wait until next November to see.

Back to Giuliani, he is smart enough not to take anything for granted. He will travel the state, listen to the people, and address the real issues facing the state and the country. He is an innate fighter and leader. New York and the country will be the better for having him as a U.S. Senator.